Quilty Sees a 150-Launch Rocket Shortfall by 2030, Worst in 2028, as Falcon 9 Winds Down

The Western world is about 150 rocket launches short of what satellite operators and civil space agencies need between now and 2030, space analytics firm Quilty Space says in a report published on October 29, 2026. The firm expects the squeeze to be worst in 2028, and says the gap could roughly double if US military demand is counted.

The finding matters because the shortage is no longer a scheduling headache for a few start-ups. It touches broadband constellations, Earth-observation companies, government science missions and anyone planning to put hardware in orbit before the end of the decade. And the biggest single reason for it is a deliberate choice by SpaceX.

Key facts at a glance

• Quilty Space estimates a shortfall of about 150 medium- and heavy-lift launches through 2030, outside China.
• That breaks down into 113 launches from established providers, 12 from emerging providers and 25 extra rideshare missions.
• 2028 is forecast to be the most acute year, with only gradual improvement after that.
• The gap could roughly double if extra US military demand is included and SpaceX does not extend Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy to cover it.
• The report, titled "Mind the Gap: Quantifying the Launch Shortage", is sold for $1,000.

How the launch market got here

Quilty built its estimate by looking at the publicly disclosed launch backlogs of the world's 10 leading medium-, heavy- and super-heavy-lift rockets, mapping scheduled missions to 2030 and forecasting how many flights each vehicle can realistically make, based on past performance and industry intelligence.

Several pressures stack up. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 took Russian rockets off the Western market. Before the war, about a fifth of global launch capacity, including many commercial missions, ran on vehicles such as Soyuz, according to Caleb Henry, Quilty's director of research. Next-generation rockets, from Blue Origin's New Glenn and United Launch Alliance's Vulcan to Rocket Lab's Neutron, have been slower to reach a steady flight rate than planned. Amazon's Leo broadband constellation has absorbed a large share of what capacity there is; the company ordered 83 launches for it in 2022.

Demand, meanwhile, keeps rising, from megaconstellation operators to a wave of small-satellite firms.

The Falcon 9 factor

The newest and largest pressure is the wind-down of Falcon 9 for commercial customers. Falcon 9 flew 165 times in 2025, more than any other rocket in the world. SpaceX has not made a formal announcement, but in the prospectus for its initial public offering in May it said: "While we have steadily increased our Falcon 9 launch cadence over recent years, we expect Falcon 9 launches to decrease over time." The same document said Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy would remain key assets for specialised missions, including NASA crew rotations and national security payloads.

Companies have said SpaceX stopped taking rideshare reservations beyond late 2028 or early 2029. Quilty's own model assumes Falcon keeps flying for US government missions while its commercial service retires, which is why the 25 extra rideshare missions appear in the shortfall.

SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell has framed the move as self-disruption. "If we don't obsolete our own products and services, someone's going to find a way to obsolete them for us," she said at a September industry event.

Starship is not an easy substitute

On paper, Starship could close the gap. It is far larger than Falcon 9 and designed for rapid reuse, and it reached orbit for the first time on September 28. But Quilty's report is pointed on this: "SpaceX has also stopped affirming Starship as a commercial launcher."

There is also a hardware problem. Starship currently flies with a narrow, slot-shaped payload door built to dispense flat Starlink satellites. That suits SpaceX's own spacecraft and its planned orbital data centre satellites, but not the bulkier, conventional satellites most commercial operators build. SpaceX has not made a recent public commitment to a larger fairing door for outside customers.

Customers are adjusting their expectations. On an earnings call on October 29, Telesat president and chief executive Dan Goldberg described how he expects SpaceX to prioritise Starship capacity: "First and foremost, they'll focus on the deployment of their own satellites and their own requirements. Secondarily or right alongside of that, the US government will be a priority customer for them." He added that if Telesat's next-generation satellites can fit the same dispenser SpaceX uses for its own satellites, the company has "some expectation" that Starship could be available for future missions.

In other words, some operators may have to redesign satellites around the only big rocket with spare lift.

The wild cards: Blue Origin and the Pentagon

Quilty's forecast is deliberately cautious about Blue Origin. It assumes eight New Glenn launches in 2028, 12 in 2029 and 16 in 2030. Henry noted that Blue Origin is building production capacity for up to 150 upper stages a year, but turning that into a high flight rate takes time. "I'd be happy to be proven wrong," he said.

The bigger unknown is the US military. The current phase of the national security launch programme has two lanes. Lane 1, for missions with a higher risk tolerance, is open to any company that has reached orbit once; it currently includes Falcon rockets, New Glenn and Vulcan. Lane 2 is reserved for SpaceX and United Launch Alliance. Earlier this year the US Space Force sharply raised its demand forecasts for missions ordered between 2025 and 2029: Lane 1 from an estimated 30 to 60 launches to about 170, and Lane 2 from 54 to 79.

That surge is not in Quilty's 150-launch figure. Henry's view is that Washington will be able to require SpaceX to fly national-priority missions. "I think the US government will compel them to do this," he said.

A different view on how bad it gets

Not everyone in the industry is surprised. Jean-Luc Maria, chief executive of French orbital transfer company Exotrail, said at a September conference that "this situation was totally predictable." For founders on the sharp end, though, predictability does not create seats. Anatolii Papulov, founder and chief executive of UK firm NewOrbit, said lead times for a launch have stretched to 30 to 36 months, from about 12 months a year earlier. His company secured a 2028 slot on an undisclosed rocket, but called the process "very hard".

What it means for you

If you work at a satellite company or space start-up, the planning horizon has changed. Henry put it plainly: "If you haven't booked your launch already, and you need one, you're late." Expect longer lead times, tighter contract terms and, in some cases, design changes to fit whichever vehicle is available.

If you are an investor in space companies, launch access is now a balance-sheet risk, not just an engineering one. A firm with a signed launch contract for 2027 or 2028 is in a materially different position from one still shopping for a ride.

If you are a government buyer in the UK, Canada or Australia, note one hard constraint Henry highlighted: Chinese commercial rockets are flying more often, but US and most European satellites cannot use them because of US export rules. "Even if you have a satellite built in Europe, if it has a component from America, it cannot fly on a Chinese rocket," he said.

If you are a consumer, the shortage is a quiet brake on new satellite services, from broadband to direct-to-phone connectivity and Earth-observation data. Slower deployment can mean slower coverage gains and less price competition.

What happens next

The next milestones to watch are mostly about new rockets proving they can fly often. New Glenn's return to flight and cadence, Vulcan's flight rate, and first flights of medium-lift vehicles such as Neutron will decide how much of the 2028 gap gets filled. Quilty expects the crunch to be most acute in 2028 and to ease only slowly, and Henry warned it "might not abate until sometime late in the 2030s."

On the SpaceX side, watch for any commitment to a conventional payload door on Starship, any change to Falcon 9 commercial booking policy, and how the Space Force allocates its expanded Lane 1 and Lane 2 missions.

Takeaways

1. Book early. If a mission needs to fly before 2030, launch contracting should start now, not after the satellite is built.
2. Design for flexibility. Spacecraft that can fit more than one rocket, including Starship's dispenser, will have more options.
3. Watch 2028. That is the year Quilty expects demand to outrun supply most sharply.
4. Track new entrants. New Glenn, Vulcan and Neutron flight rates are the main lever that could shrink the 150-launch gap.
5. Factor in policy. Military demand and export rules can reshape who gets to fly, and when.